What future for marine renewable energy in Portugal and Spain up to 2030? Forecasting plausible scenarios using general morphological analysis and clustering techniques.

Abstract

Marine renewables – which include mainly wave, tidal and current energy – have been hailed, for the past decades, as a potential solution to support the decarbonization of the society. Portugal and Spain have been traditionally avid for the testing and demonstration of such technologies, but the implementation of marine capacity is yet marginal, and there are many uncertainties regarding the future of the sector in the region. The main objective of this article is to show a future projection of marine renewable energies in both Iberian and Macaronesian regions for 2030 to research and technological development communities. To obtain this future projection, General Morphological Analysis and advanced clustering techniques have been used. The results are divided into five groups of potential scenarios, which vary significantly due to different political, social and technological parameters. The influence of variables such as innovation speed, infrastructure implementation, and comprehensive metocean data availability emerges as pivotal determinants shaping the sector's course. The knowledge from this systematization is expected to be used by researchers, technicians, governments or by any other agency involved in marine renewable energies in Spain and Portugal, as a guidance for their new projects and research lines.